Since its top of 1881 in 2016, the Nepal Stock Exchange has been on a downward trend. The market dropped to as low as 1100, a drop of nearly 40% from its peak. Many investors lost a lot of money as a result of the devastating market meltdown.
If we ask investors right now if they thought the market was going to tumble after 2016, many will say yes. However, at the peak, investors were more bullish on the market. The massive quantity of everyday turnover demonstrates this. The daily transaction amount was between 1.5 and 2 billion rupees.
So, how does an investor’s opinion of the same event change? This is a psychological phenomena known as ‘Hindsight bias.’
The tendency of people to perceive events as more predictable than they actually are is referred to as hindsight bias. In other words, it makes the past appear less predictable than it was. Things always appear more evident after they have occurred.
Decision making is difficult prior to the occurrence due to a lack of information and foresight. However, looking at the available results after the event, the outcome appears more predictable.
During the bullish era in our market, investors were uninformed of the oncoming market disaster. As a result, many people were highly involved in stocks. Some people predicted that the market would crash. However, no one was certain at the moment.
However, after the market fall, investors believe that they were forewarned that the market would drop. With more information regarding the market crash becomes accessible, investors appear to be more sure about the event’s predictability.
Why is hindsight bias dangerous in investing?
Consider the following scenario: You are considering purchasing a stock called ABC. However, you do not purchase it for some reason. The price of ABC stock then skyrockets. What are your thoughts?
The answer is that you are stupid. You kick yourself for squandering the opportunity. You are remorseful for not purchasing the stock when you realized it was a winner. You tell yourself, ‘I knew the stock would soar.’ This is what we mean by hindsight bias.
So, what makes it dangerous? This is because you have made a promise to yourself that you would not make the same mistake again. You are more confident in your decision-making abilities, and you vow to seize the next opportunity. This is the danger that hindsight bias can cause. The next time might not be the same as the previous.
Let’s have a look at another scenario: You consider
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How Does Hindsight Bias Influence Investing Decisions?